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☆ China economy: All-important property market shows no sign of rebound in new year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New property sales reached a total of 1.06 trillion yuan ($147 billion) in the first two months of this year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The drop also marks a much faster pace of decline from the year-ago period, when new property sales dipped just 0.1%. Property investment fell 9% in the January-to-February period, which was faster than the 5.7% decrease registered during the same period last year. “The correction in property construction is still in its early stages,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note on Monday. The growth in factory output might be driven by strong exports demand.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, “, ”, Louise Loo, ” Loo, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Capital, Catering, “, Oxford Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ China sets GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING — China set a growth target of "around 5%" for 2024, according to the "Government Work Report" released Tuesday. The targets for GDP and other economic indicators were published as part of the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting. The work report emphasized the need to "ensure both high-quality development and greater security," preventing risks and maintaining social stability, among other tasks. The work report said that "internal drivers of development are being built up," but added the country should be "well prepared for all risks and challenges." More than 2,800 delegates attended the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting in Beijing on Tuesday.

Persons: Li Qiang, Louise Loo Organizations: Economic, National People's, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party of China's, National People's Congress, IMF, Oxford Economics Locations: Davos, Switzerland, BEIJING, China, Beijing

☆ Chinese leaders to hold annual 'Two Sessions' meeting as debate about bazooka-like stimulus swirls
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Edgar Su | ReutersBEIJING — China is set this week to kick off its annual parliamentary meetings, which investors are watching closely for signals on economic stimulus. China's economic policy is typically set at an annual meeting in December by leaders within the ruling Communist Party of China. GDP and other economic targetsThe Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body, is set to kick off its annual meeting on Monday. "On balance, the additional fiscal impulse this year, assuming a bazooka-like fiscal package is not forthcoming, is unlikely to be particularly large." China's foreign minister and premier typically hold press conferences during the parliamentary meetings, which generally end in mid-March.

Persons: Edgar Su, Wang Jun, Wang, Zong Liang, Louise Loo, Loo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of China's Zong Organizations: of, Initiative, Reuters, Huatai Asset Management, CNBC, Communist Party of China, U.S, Political Consultative Conference, National People's, Oxford Economics, Industry, Information Technology, Science, Technology, Housing, Bank of, Communist Party's, Communist Party of Locations: Beijing, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S . Federal, RMB3.8tn, Bank of China's

☆ China's economy looks like a mess — but some sectors are quietly doing well in its '2-speed economy'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Meanwhile, its financial markets are bleeding, the property market has gone up in smoke, local government debt appears alarming, and foreign investors are exiting in droves. Real estate — which was a huge part of China's economy — has been hit badly, he said. AdvertisementTravel has picked up after years of pandemic lockdownServices is another pillar of China's economy that Beijing has been trying to build up. AdvertisementThis is in part because new growth industries are not able to take the place of real estate — yet. Because the property market accounts for one-quarter of China's GDP and more than two-thirds of household wealth, its overall drag on China's economy is much greater than whatever is doing well right now.

Persons: —, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, AllianceBernstein, John Lin, Lin, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Wood Mackenzie, AllianceBerstein's Lin, Nomura, Loo Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg TV, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Oxford Locations: China, GlobalData.TS, Real, COVID, Beijing, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea

☆ China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since June
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

China's lenders cut the country's benchmark five-year loan prime rate for the first time since June, extending Beijing's efforts to revive the country's anemic property market. The Chinese central bank kept its one-year loan prime rate — the peg for most household and corporate loans in China — unchanged at 3.45%. The benchmark five-year loan rate — the peg for most mortgages — was cut by 25 basis points to 3.95%, according to a statement Tuesday from the People's Bank of China. This was also the largest one-time cut in the five-year rate and the first since the five-year rate was last trimmed in June by 10 basis points. China calculates its loan prime rates each month after 20 designated commercial lenders submit their proposed rates to the PBOC.

Persons: Louise Loo, Loo, CNBC's Lee Ying Shan Organizations: People's Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Sunday Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China is in 'a bit of a policy pivot,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is in 'a bit of a policy pivot,' economist saysLouise Loo, lead China economist at Oxford Economics, says "the easing bias is still there, but we're likely to see different kinds of easing."

Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: China, Oxford Economics Locations: China

☆ China's Nov services activity accelerates on boost from new orders - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The findings present a mixed picture of the vast services sector as an official survey last week showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the first time since December last year, prompting calls for more stimulus measures. "Both services supply and demand expanded, as the market continued to heal," said Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin Insight Group. Analysts say the different survey sizes and composition of surveyed companies might explain the discrepancy between the Caixin and official PMI readings. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, grew to 51.6 from 50.0 in October, marking the strongest reading since August. According to the Caixin services survey, employment fell for the first time since the start of 2023 as some firms maintained a cautious approach to hiring.

Persons: Wang Zhe, Wang, Louise Loo, spender, Loo, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: P Global, Caixin Insight, PMI, Oxford, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, October's, China

ON TRACK FOR GOVT GDP TARGETThe recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved. The key issue is what growth target the government will set and how much fiscal easing will take place." The statistics bureau said China would be able to hit the 2023 growth target if the fourth quarter growth tops 4.4%. Moody's Analytics has also raised its 2023 growth projection to 5% from 4.9%. The faltering property sector has hit some of the biggest developers in the country.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Zhiwei Zhang, Tingshu Wang, Frederic Neumann, Louise Loo, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Index, New, REUTERS, Nomura, JPMorgan, Analysts, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Global Research, HSBC, Oxford Economics, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Brisbane, U.S, Beijing, China, New Zealand, Asia

☆ One sector in China is beating the slowdown — 3 stocks to play it including one with 80% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After Beijing cracked down on real estate developers' high debt levels, banks and other financial institutions drastically pulled back on lending to those companies. Meanwhile, China's latest development plans have emphasized advanced manufacturing — production of goods of higher value than apparel and other lower-cost goods Chinese factories have been known for. But analysts increasingly realize that the high-growth days of real estate are over, weighing further o n the economy in the near term. Oxford Economics expects the economy to slow to a 4.4% pace in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, dragged down by real estate. China is set to release third-quarter GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment on Wed., Oct. 18.

Persons: That's, hasn't, Banks, Gill, Kharas, Louise Loo, Loo, Brian Tycangco Organizations: People's Bank of China, Oxford, Stansberry Research, HSBC, World, Network Locations: China, Beijing, Oxford, Friday's

☆ Weak import and export data from China will immediately impact stocks, says Oxford Economics
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWeak import and export data from China will immediately impact stocks, says Oxford EconomicsLouise Loo, Lead China Economist at Oxford Economics, discusses the latest China import and export data.

Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: Oxford, China, Oxford Economics Locations: China

☆ China’s Exports Fall for Fourth Straight Month
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

A Reuters survey forecast that exports had fallen 9.2 percent in August from a year earlier, and that imports had dropped 9 percent. Many had stocked up on manufactured goods during the pandemic, often from China, which has by far the world’s largest factory sector. Why It MattersExport and import statistics provide one of the early indications each month of how the Chinese economy fared in the preceding month. The data released on Thursday was the latest sign that overall demand for China’s goods may have begun to bottom out. While China’s exports have been weak this year, they are coming down from a very high level achieved during the pandemic.

Persons: ”, Louise Loo Organizations: Reuters, Export, Oxford Economics, “ Locations: United States, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Singapore, Europe, Asia

However, in a hopeful sign for growth, conditions did not materially worsen even though the survey showed factories under persistent pressure. China's major manufacturing rivals in the region Japan and South Korea also reported sharp declines in output on Thursday. "It's too early to tell, but today's print suggests that a sequential uptick in growth activity in the third quarter could still be possible," said Louise Loo, senior economist with Oxford Economics. Policymakers remain under pressure to boost domestic demand as the global economy continues to slow. Going forward, "the actual implementation and effectiveness of policy support will be the key indicator to watch," he added.

Persons: It's, Louise Loo, Pan Gongsheng, Frederic Neumann, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Joe Cash, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Oxford Economics, Reuters, People's Bank of, Global Research Asia, HSBC, Jones, Thomson Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, Japan, South Korea, People's Bank of China, United States, Europe, Asia

☆ China's economic slump is nowhere near the bottom, says Oxford Economics
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economic slump is nowhere near the bottom, says Oxford EconomicsLouise Loo, Lead China Economist at Oxford Economics, discusses China's decision to not cut rates this weekend.

Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: Oxford, China, Oxford Economics

"We think the situation is probably getting a little bit worse because of this Country Garden incident," Chan told CNBC in a phone interview Thursday. The debt troubles at Country Garden and the uncertainty of government support are feeding into broader unease in the Chinese housing market. Louise Loo Oxford EconomicsThe Chinese property sector has been reeling since 2020, when Beijing cracked down on the debt levels of mainland property developers. Chan said S&P's bear case for China's property sector is for 11 trillion yuan in sales this year, and 10 trillion yuan for 2024. Land sales divergenceAs China's property sector consolidates amid the debt and credit malaise, state-owned developers are better positioned to grow than non-state ones.

Persons: Edward Chan, Chan, Evergrande, Louise Loo, Global's Chan, That's, China's, Gary Ng Organizations: Future Publishing, CNBC, JPMorgan, Louise Loo Oxford, Oxford Economics, Natixis Corporate, Investment Banking Locations: Chengdong, Hai, City, East China's Jiangsu Province, China, U.S, China's, Beijing

☆ China may 'miss the 5%' growth target this year as downside risks spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.

Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China

☆ Markets see any policy delay from China as policy inaction, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets see any policy delay from China as policy inaction, economist saysLouise Loo, lead economist at Oxford Economics, discusses China's economic data and says "the best way to tackle a confidence crisis is to be very quick on your stimulus."

Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: Oxford Economics Locations: China

☆ China surprises with rate cuts as economy grapples with 'confidence crisis'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Str | Afp | Getty ImagesChina's central bank unexpectedly cut rates on Tuesday, as policymakers continued to ramp up support for its struggling economy. It was the second rate cut in three months. China is facing a "confidence crisis" as Beijing's policy delay is being perceived as "inaction" to spur growth, according to an economist. "In a crisis such as this … you can't really call it a consumption crisis or investment crisis. In addition to the rate cut on Tuesday, the central bank also injected 204 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos, cutting borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90%.

Persons: we've, Louise Loo, CNBC's, Loo, they've, 15bps, Goldman Sachs, Hao Zhou Organizations: Afp, Getty, People's Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Guotai Locations: China

☆ Analysis: No decoupling, but West and China drift apart
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai, China, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, October 19, 2020. But underlying trade and investment trends point to an unmistakable long-term drift in commercial ties with the West. Take foreign direct investment - the more forward-looking clue as to where commercial ties between countries are heading. WATCH GERMANYSome, meanwhile, point to the fact that U.S.-China trade - exports and imports of goods combined - hit a record $690 billion last year as evidence that the reality does not match the frosty political rhetoric. Last month's China strategy document unveiled by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition left open exactly how far Berlin would ultimately go in reining in commercial ties.

Persons: Aly, China's, Louise Loo, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Angela Merkel, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Mark Leonard, –, Joe Biden, Loo, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, West, Oxford Economics, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Reuters, European Council, Foreign Relations, – Mercedes, Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, BASF –, Oxford, Thomson Locations: Port, Shanghai, China, United States, Europe, GERMANY, Germany, Berlin, reining, Taiwan, U.S

☆ China's July exports contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. It shows a tough external market for the world's factory when it needs it the most.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's exports contracted 14.5% on-year in July, worse than the 12.5% fall analysts had expected. Imports into China fell 12.4% on-year in July, far more than the 5% decline analysts had expected. The two readings reflect weak demand both, externally and internally for China's post-COVID economy. China's exports in dollar terms contracted 14.5% in July from a year ago, making their worst on-year contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, according to the official data. In particular, high-tech products — which make up a quarter of China's total goods exports — fell 4.4% on-month in July, marking its fourth straight month of decline, Loo added.

Persons: Louise Loo, Loo, Nomura Organizations: Imports, Service, Reuters, European Union, Oxford Economics, Nomura Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

☆ China will go back to increasing support for infrastructure spending, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina will go back to increasing support for infrastructure spending, economist saysLouise Loo of Oxford Economics says the Chinese government is focused on weak first-quarter numbers, but it wants growth to be "as organic as possible." She adds that its new policies will likely be "all-encompassing."

Persons: Louise Loo Organizations: China, Oxford Economics

When China suddenly dismantled its lockdowns and other Covid precautions last December, officials in Beijing and many investors expected the economy to spring back to life. Investment in China has stagnated this spring after a flurry of activity in late winter. Fewer and fewer new housing projects are being started. Extra stimulus spending now with borrowed money would spur a burst of activity but pose a difficult choice for policymakers already worried about the accumulated debt. “Authorities risk being behind the curve in stimulating the economy, but there’s no quick fix,” said Louise Loo, an economist specializing in China in the Singapore office of Oxford Economics.

Persons: ”, Louise Loo Organizations: Investment, Oxford Economics Locations: China, Beijing, Singapore

☆ China's economic recovery is stalling. Here's what to expect next
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowA raft of weak Chinese economic data in May has raised hopes of decisive policy intervention. A slew of economic data from industrial production and fixed asset investment to retail sales and trade fell short of expectations, with China teetering on the brink of deflation as its post-pandemic economic recovery stalls. "Weak investments data suggest that authorities are unlikely to stop at the monetary easing we saw this week," Oxford Economics' lead economist Louise Loo wrote in a note after Thursday's China data release. "We therefore continue to expect announcements of further 'piecemeal' property sector easing measures to follow in the coming weeks," Loo wrote. Goldman Sachs economists said last month that getting young people back to work would give China's economic recovery a sizable boost, given that they account for almost 20% of consumption in China.

Persons: China teetering, Helen Qiao, Louise Loo, Loo, Goldman Sachs, America's Qiao Organizations: China's State Council, Communist, China's National Statistics Bureau, Bank of America's, CNBC, People's Bank of, Oxford, Afp, Getty, Bank Locations: China, People's Bank of China, Chinese, Chongqing, America's

☆ Premarket stocks: Apple is giving banks a run for their money
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Apple’s savings account is managed through Apple products and users must have Apple’s credit card, simply called Apple Card, to qualify for one. “It’s very much a loyalty play because it’s a multi-level process: To get the Apple credit card you need the phone, and to get the savings account you need the credit card. The Apple savings account through Goldman is also insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. And Apple’s savings account is hardly the best out there, either. UFB Direct offers a savings account with more than a 5% annual percentage yield.

☆ China GDP: Economy shakes off Covid legacy to grow 4.5% in Q1
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But private investment barely budged and youth unemployment surged to the second highest level on record, indicating the country’s private sector employers are still wary about longer term prospects. Retail sales jumped 10.6% in March from a year earlier, the highest level of growth since June 2021. The country’s GDP will grow 5.2% this year and 5.1% in 2024, it predicted. If adjustments are made to account for the impact of delayed economic activity, GDP growth in the first quarter could have been just 2.6%, he said. For example, private investment was extremely weak.

On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September. For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Other indicators for December such as retail sales and factory output, also released along with GDP data, beat expectations but were still weak. At an agenda-setting meeting in December, top leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy support to ensure key targets are hit. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.

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